Sterling and Aussie Weaken in Otherwise Becalmed FX Market

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  • The US dollar is mostly little changed as the broad consolidation that has emerged this week continues
  • Perhaps seeing how the British press reacted to May’s speech, sterling was sold
  • The North American session features speeches by four Fed officials, including Powell, who has emerged as a candidate to replace Yellen as chair
  • Philippines September CPI rose 3.4% vs. 3.1% expected; Colombia September CPI is expected to rise 4.11% y/y

The dollar is mostly firmer against the majors in narrow ranges, as consolidation continues.  The yen and euro are outperforming, while the Aussie and sterling are underperforming.  EM currencies are mostly firmer.  RUB and TWD are outperforming, while ZAR and SGD are underperforming.  MSCI Asia Pacific was flat, with the Nikkei flat.  MSCI EM is up 0.1%, with Chinese markets closed for the week due to holiday.  Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% near midday, while S&P futures are pointing to a flat open.  The 10-year US yield is flat at 2.32%.  Commodity prices are mostly higher, with Brent oil up 0.8%, copper up 0.7%, and gold up 0.2%.

The US dollar is mostly little changed as the broad consolidation that has emerged this week continues.  The two powerful forces that have emerged – expectation of a Fed hike at the end of the year and European political challenges – appear to have reached a tentative equilibrium.  Meanwhile, US President Trump’s comments about “wiping out” Puerto Rico’s $74 bln of debt remind investors of the unorthodox and unpredictable impulses from the US.

Two currencies, sterling, and the Australian dollar are exceptions to the general calm of the foreign exchange market today.  Sterling’s story is mostly about politics, it appears, while the Aussie’s weakness is in response to unexpected weakness in retail sales.

UK Prime Minister May stole some thunder from the opposition by proposing a cap on household energy prices and boosting social housing.  Utility share prices did what one would expect in the face of a price cap and retreated.  It was the hardest hit sector in the FTSE 250 on Wednesday, losing 0.7%, while the index as a whole slipped 0.3%.  Her overall performance appeared to have failed to reset her administration.  Sterling was slightly firmer before the Prime Minister spoke, helped by the stronger than expected service PMI.

However, sterling trended lower and recorded the session lows late in North American turnover.  The main factor that has slowed sterling’s descent in the face of the weak political backdrop and the poor technical condition is the anticipation that BOE will raise rates next month.  While sterling has nearly returned to levels against the dollar last seen at the last BOE meeting’s hawkish forward guidance, the implied yield of short-sterling futures strip and the OIS remains high (implying around an 80% chance of a hike), and, of note, higher than the odds of a Fed hike before the end of the year.

Sterling traded sideways in Asia today, but as soon as European traders entered the fray, perhaps seeing how the British press reacted to May’s speech, sterling was sold.  It has been pushed below $1.32 for the first time since the BOE meeting.  The low on that day was about $1.3155.  Sterling has also met the 50% retracement objective of the rally since late August.  The 61.8% retracement is found near $1.3110.

The euro has carved what appears to be a rounded bottom against sterling over the past several weeks.  The move above GBP0.8880 today opens the door to GBP0.8960-GBP0.9025.  We note that sterling’s weakness continues in the face of little change in expectations for a BOE hike.  Some observers are suggesting that the rate hike that so many are convinced will take place will be simply taking back the post-referendum rate cut and not the start of even a mini-tightening cycle.

The cross-demand for the single currency is helping keep the euro firm against the dollar.  The euro is trading inside yesterday’s range.  The $1.1800 area continues to provide the near-term ceiling.  The Catalonia-Madrid standoff continues, but the lack of fresh escalation has seen Spanish assets stabilize.  Its two-year yield is up less than a basis point, and the Italian yield is up a little more than that.  The 10-year yield is also little changed.  This is more impressive than it may sound as the Spanish government went ahead with its scheduled bond sales, where the new supply, including some inflation-linked bonds, were easily absorbed.

Spanish equities are up about 0.75%.  The gains are broad, with only two sectors real estate and materials, trading lower.  Today’s gains pare the week’s loss to about 3.3%, which would be the worst in about six weeks.   It is best performing major bourse in Europe today as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is nursing a small loss for the second day.

Economists had expected Australian retail sales to have grown by around 0.3% after a flat report in July.  Instead, retail sales fell by 0.6% in August, and, adding insult to injury, revised the July report to show a 0.2% decline.  It is the first back-to-back decline in five years.  News that the July trade surplus was near twice the initial estimate (now ~A$808 mln) and that the August surplus was a bit larger than expected (~A$989 mln) was not sufficient to offset, and indeed may have made possible by the compression of domestic demand.

The Australian dollar is finding some support near $0.7820 after it reached a one-week high yesterday near $0.7875.  The week’s low, which is also a two and a half month low, was recorded near $0.7785.  There do not appear to be large options struck near the money expiring today, but there is an A$1.1 bln option that will be cut tomorrow struck at $0.7800.

The November light sweet crude oil futures contract recorded a five-month high in late September near $52.85.  It closed below $50 yesterday for the first time in 2 1/2 weeks.  At $49.50 it would have retraced half the gains it has recorded since the late August low around $46.15.  The next retracement objective is near $48.70.  The five-day average is moving below the 20-day average for the first time in a month.  Prices are steady today, but both Brent and WTI are off 2.7% and 3.2% on the week, which would be the largest losses in two months.

US output is rising, and inventories are falling.  The missing piece is exports.  They have surged over the past couple of weeks, with last week’s exports reaching almost two mln barrels a day.  Last year crude exports averaged about 600k a day.

The combined exports of crude and refined products have reduced the US net imports to a record low.  The US still imports oil, and the latest data puts those imports at around 7.2 mln barrels a day.  The storms did skew the data, and it may not have entirely worked its ways through, but the widest spread between Brent and WTI in two-years ($6.0) is also encouraging US exports.  The two-week surge in US exports is also made possible by the weaker demand from refineries as they continue to recover from the storm.

The recent rally which carried Brent to almost $60 and WTI to almost $53 has also spurred some hedge-related sales, according to reports.  And this reveals a contradiction in the OPEC strategy.  If they succeed in driving the price of Brent higher, then this will see the US producers boost output and exports, and increasingly competing in third markets in Asia and Europe with OPEC.

The North American session features speeches by four Fed officials, including Powell, who has emerged as a candidate to replace Yellen as chair.  The views of the regional presidents that speak today (Harker, George, and Williams) are well known.  In the US, there are several economic reports today, including August factory orders (and the final durable goods orders) and trade balance.  Barring a significant surprise, investors have already largely taken on-board that the US growth is acceptably near trend with some distortions to high frequency data due to the impact of the powerful storms.  Weekly initial jobless claims, like the ADP yesterday, and likely reflected in tomorrow ‘s non-farm payroll report, have been adversely impacted, while the surge in auto sales and some strength seen in the PMIs are also storm-related.

Canada also reports August (merchandise) trade today.  Perhaps the most important component will be non-oil exports, which have been soft.   The implied yield on the December BA futures has eased to the lowest level in a month.  The market has taken the cues by BOC officials that sought to ease rate hike speculation in the face of strong growth after two hikes at the last two meetings have now unwound the 2015 cuts.  The US dollar was consolidating its recovery from about CAD1.2060 in early September to almost CAD1.2540 two days ago.

Philippines September CPI rose 3.4% vs. 3.1% expected.  This matches the cycle high, but inflation remains within the 2-4% target range.  Next policy meeting is November 9, and rates are likely to be kept steady then as the bank sees inflation remaining near the 3% target in both 2017 and 2018.  However, it will likely set a more hawkish tone if price pressures continue to edge higher.

Colombia September CPI is expected to rise 4.11% y/y vs. 3.87% in August.  If so, it would move back above the 2-4% target range for the first time since May and explains the central bank’s recent cautiousness.  The central bank just kept rates steady Friday.   The 5-2 vote supports my view that the easing cycle is not over yet.  Next policy meeting is October 27, and rates could be cut then.