• The big story is the US midterm elections
• The current US fiscal stance and macro outlook remain intact and the Fed will feel comfortable tightening rates further
• While the knee-jerk reaction today is to push US yields down and sell the dollar, we think the previous drivers will re-assert themselves
• RBNZ decision will come in the North American afternoon
• EM FX is rallying as the dollar comes under broad-based pressure; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%

Continue reading “Dollar and US Yields Soften After Midterm Elections”

• Markets await the results of today’s US midterm elections
• US rates are struggling to maintain upward momentum
• Italian Finance Minister Tria refuted press reports that he was going to present a revised draft budget to the EU
• Eurozone reported final services and composite PMI readings for October
• RBA left policy unchanged last night, as expected
• Philippines October CPI remained steady at 6.7%y/y; Brazil COPOM released its minutes

Continue reading “Dollar Firm, Markets Calm Ahead of US Midterm Elections”

• The US mid-term elections will be held Tuesday
• The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision Thursday
• The US 10-year yield rose to trade near 3.22% Friday
• China continues its data deluge; President Xi appears to be taking a hardline approach
• RBA meets Tuesday and RBNZ meets Thursday; neither are expected to move on rates
• EM FX got some traction last week as the dollar rally stalled but has come under pressure again this week

Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

• Optimism over US-China trade tensions is the latest driver for improved market sentiment
• October US jobs report will be the data highlight
• Canada also reports October jobs data
• Final eurozone PMIs were reported
• Australia reported September retail sales
• MSCI EM has staged an impressive comeback, rallying nearly 8% from the October 30 low

Continue reading “Equity Rally Extends on China Optimism, Dollar Correction Continues”