UK Parliament is scheduled to hold its Brexit vote tomorrow. The outcome is expected sometime between 7-10 PM London time, and is likely to result in a rejection of May’s plan. What’s unclear is what happens next. Here, we try to put together some possible scenarios. For the most part, the scenarios would seem to favor UK assets for anything other than a no-deal Brexit.
EM FX ended the week on a soft note after rallying most of the week on the dovish shift in the Fed’s messaging. Until US rates adjust back to pricing in no US recession, it will be hard for the dollar to maintain much traction and so this EM bounce can continue. Yet other risks to EM remain in place, including slower growth in China and globally.
In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists provide their views on major events across developed and emerging markets in Q1 2019.
Continue reading “FX Quarterly Outlook for First Quarter 2019”
Market euphoria over new Brazilian President Bolsonaro remains strong. Yet the economy remains weak and the new government is still untested. We think market optimism on Brazil is due for a reset, like what was seen with Mexico and AMLO.
Continue reading “Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Shutdown Drags On”
Continue reading “Dollar Rangebound as Markets Await Fresh Drivers”