Emerging Markets: BBH Market Strategists provide intra-day commentary on currency, economic and geopolitical developments in the emerging and frontier markets.
By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot There were minimal changes to the status quo as the week commences. Bangladesh has announced revised trading hours on the local exchanges. No change of status in Nigeria and Kenya as they … Continue reading Restricted Market Trading Comments
EM and most risk assets came under pressure last week as rising virus numbers and weak economic data outweighed the favorable liquidity backdrop. This week brings preliminary PMI readings for much of the world, with further improvement from May expected. Some countries and states will continue to ease lockdowns this week, while Beijing struggles to contain an outbreak. The liquidity backdrop remains support for risk assets, but the tug of war between improved economic data and worsening virus numbers is likely to continue for the time being. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
In this piece we provide a cross-asset, high-level take of our view on Brazilian markets. Our time horizon is the next few months. In short, we are positive on equities, negative on the currency and take a neutral position on … Continue reading Brazil Update
By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot As the week commences, we see further lockdown measures unfolding in some markets. Indonesia extended of lockdown hours while in Pakistan have reduced trading hours on the local exchange announced. No change … Continue reading Restricted Market Trading Comments
EM and other risk assets stabilized to end the week after Thursday’s selloff, but remain vulnerable. The risks ahead are the same as before, which include a second wave of infections as well as a longer and shallower than expected recovery in global growth. The Fed’s message of low rates as far as the eye can see was balanced by Powell’s grim outlook for unemployment. The liquidity story should remain positive for EM, with the BOE expected to increase its QE this week, but that may not be enough to sustain continued gains in risk assets. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
As we expected, the Fed was about as dovish as it could be without delivering any new policy initiatives. The clear signal is that policy will remain accommodative as far as the eye can see, and that’s negative for the dollar.
Continue reading “This Is What It Sounds Like When Doves Cry”
The dollar remains under pressure, due in large part to the Fed’s aggressive efforts to inject stimulus. We see dollar weakness persisting near-term. From a longer-term perspective, we note that the greenback remains largely rangebound and is unlikely to fall below its 2018 lows. Continue reading “Our Latest Thoughts on the Dollar”
By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot We continue to see a mix of easing and extensions of lockdown measures across markets. Markets such as Tunisia and Sri Lanka have extended their lockdown periods over the past week. No … Continue reading Restricted Market Trading Comments
Risk-on was the theme last week and that is likely to continue this week. That’s good news for EM, which has benefited from improved market sentiment. Commodity prices continue to recover, even though the data out of mainland China remain mixed. The Fed is expected to reaffirm its current policy stance when the FOMC meets this week. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”