Emerging Markets: BBH Market Strategists provide intra-day commentary on currency, economic and geopolitical developments in the emerging and frontier markets.
We think the global backdrop remains very negative for EM. Rising tariffs pose significant risks to global growth and trade. We expect both China and Mexico to retaliate further in the coming days. At this point, a potentially more dovish Fed and ECB (amongst many others) is simply not enough to help EM get any traction. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
The US Treasury finally presented its semiannual report to Congress on “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States.” The delay was due to a change in the criteria for being named a currency manipulator as well as for being included in the report, suggesting the trade hawks continue to drive US policy. Yet while more countries came under scrutiny amidst heightened trade frictions, China was not named as a manipulator. Continue reading “Semiannual US Treasury FX Report Suggests Trade Hawks Hold Sway”
The EM washout continues. The global backdrop remains negative for EM, as heightened trade tensions and slowing growth in China are expected to persist into H2 2019. We look for further EM losses ahead. Continue reading “EM FX Technical Picture”
The global backdrop for EM remains challenging. Trade tensions remain high and show no sign of letting up. China PMIs will offer the first snapshot of the economy for May and it won’t be pretty. Lastly, press reports suggest the US will consider allowing tariffs on countries that have undervalued currencies. No good will come of this for EM. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”