Medium-Term Trade Ideas

With market sentiment improving, equities and other risk assets are rallying sharply.  While we are not sure that we are out of the woods yet, we thought it would be helpful to identify which currencies are likely to outperform on the other side of the crisis.  The timing is of course anyone’s guess at this point, but we are confident that our currency picks below will eventually pay off. Continue reading “Medium-Term Trade Ideas”

Restricted Market Trading Comments

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot

With many markets still under lockdown and some going out on Easter holidays this week, we continue to see amended trading hours. The most notable change has been in India with a reduction in trading hours, while in Nigeria we saw a small amount of liquidity being released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Below are our updates for the week. Please get in touch if you would like further information or to discuss any of these markets. Continue reading “Restricted Market Trading Comments”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM may get a little support from a potential OPEC+ deal to limit oil.  Even if a deal is struck, the impact is likely to be fleeting as the global growth outlook remains terrible.  We remain negative on EM for the time being. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM went along for the ride last week as risk sentiment got a huge boost from the Fed’s QE and the passage of the US Senate-led stimulus bill.  This week, improved China PMI readings for March may help the risk rally extend for a bit.  Yet the economic toll will still be large as more and more countries go into lockdown.  When the scope of the downturn becomes better known, we believe risk sentiment will worsen.  Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

Restricted Market Trading Comments

By Dara O’Sullivan and Ilan Solot

BBH continues to see increased volatility across the restricted market space as the impact of the Corona virus accelerates.  Many restricted markets that we actively participate in were forced to take precautions and closures in some cases. Here are some comments from our trading desk. Continue reading “Restricted Market Trading Comments”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM and other risk assets are likely to remain under pressure this week as the impact of the coronavirus continues to spread.  Germany and Italy announced more severe restrictions on gatherings and travel.  Reports that the Republican Senate-led aid bill has stalled due to Democratic resistance hasn’t helped matters, nor have increasingly dire estimates of the potential Q2 contraction for the US. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Market sentiment is likely to open this week on an upswing after the Fed’s emergency rate cut and expanded QE were announced Sunday afternoon local time.  Yet as we have seen time and again this past couple of weeks, added stimulus has had little lasting impact on markets as the virus numbers continue to worsen.  Europe is now reporting more daily cases than China did at its peak.  We remain negative on EM until the global growth outlook becomes clearer. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”