Scandie Central Bank Preview

The Riksbank and Norges Bank both meet this week. The two are on different trajectories that should be underscored by the meeting outcomes; while the Riksbank is widely expected to stay on hold, we see the risk of hawkish language from the Norges Bank. This in turn could lead to some NOK outperformance that sees the NOK/SEK cross recover some of its recent losses. Continue reading “Scandie Central Bank Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar is likely to remain under pressure
  • With the media embargo lifted, quite a few Fed officials will speak this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for September will continue to roll out; Canada Parliament reopens Wednesday with the Trudeau government presenting its new fiscal agenda
  • EU summit begins Thursday; reports suggest the ECB has launched a review of its PEPP; eurozone and UK Markit flash PMI readings for September will be reported Wednesday
  • Riksbank meets Tuesday; Norges Bank and SNB meet Thursday
  • Japan and Australia flash PMI readings for September will be reported Wednesday; RBNZ meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Bank of England Preview

The Bank of England wraps up its meeting tomorrow. It is widely expected to remain on hold whilst likely setting the table for further easing by year-end. Below is a list of what the BOE may or may not do. Continue reading “Bank of England Preview”

FOMC Preview

The two-day FOMC meeting starts today and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold that should weigh on the dollar, with Powell underscoring the ultra-dovish message he sent at Jackson Hole. Continue reading “FOMC Preview”

Recent Euro Moves Far From Brutal

Many at the ECB continue to jawbone the euro. While this may help slow the single currency’s gains, we believe it will have limited lasting impact as the fundamentals favor a stronger euro over the near-term. Furthermore, we do not think that the scale of those gains warrant a panicked response from policymakers just yet. Continue reading “Recent Euro Moves Far From Brutal”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • Downward pressure on the dollar is likely to resume this week; FOMC meeting Wednesday will be very important
  • US data highlight will be August retail sales Wednesday; Fed manufacturing surveys for September will start to roll out; Canada has a busy week
  • UK has a busy week; BOE meets Thursday and is expected to deliver a dovish hold; UK-EU tensions are through the roof
  • Japan has an eventful week; BOJ meets Thursday and is expected to remain on hold; RBA minutes will be released Tuesday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

ECB Preview

The ECB meets tomorrow and is widely expected to stand pat. Macro forecasts may be tweaked modestly and there are some risks of jawboning against the stronger euro, but it should otherwise be an uneventful meeting. Looking ahead, a lot of room remains for further ECB actions. We expect the ECB to increase QE at the December 10 meeting. However, another rate cut seems very unlikely, as does activation of OMT. Continue reading “ECB Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The major US data releases this week center around inflation; the debate surrounding the Fed’s new long-term policy statement will continue for months, if not years
  • BOC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep policy steady; ECB meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady; the strong euro will likely be a topic of discussion
  • The next round of Brexit talks begin Monday in London; UK reports several key data points Friday; BOE officials are already tilting dovish ahead of next week’s meeting
  • Japan has a heavy data week; Suga has emerged as the likely successor to Abe; Australia reports several confidence measures this week Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar is likely to remain under pressure after Powell’s dovish message at Jackson Hole
  • August jobs data Friday will be the data highlight of the week
  • The Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; Powell will face many questions about the Framework Review that he unveiled at Jackson Hole
  • Messy EU politics couldn’t have come at a worse time; Germany has a heavy data week; eurozone final August manufacturing PMIs will be reported Tuesday
  • The political landscape in Japan just took a big jolt; RBA meets Tuesday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”