Riksbank Preview

Sweden is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Riksbank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Wednesday. Continue reading “Riksbank Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • Risk-off sentiment intensified last week; the dollar continues to climb
  • This is another big data week for the US; the US economy remains strong
  • Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Tuesday and the Senate Wednesday; the Senate holds confirmation hearings for Fed nominees Shelton and Waller Thursday
  • President Trump will unveil his budget proposal for FY2021 beginning October 1 this Monday
  • Eurozone and UK have heavy data weeks
  • Riksbank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.0%; RBNZ meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Latest Thoughts on the US Outlook

The US yield curve flirted with inversion again. The US economic outlook remains solid and so we believe Fed easing expectations are overdone and see US rates at the long end rising further. Annual benchmark revisions to the jobs data Friday will not derail ongoing strength in the US labor market, which ultimately supports our strong dollar call. Continue reading “Latest Thoughts on the US Outlook”

Democratic Primary Timeline

The Iowa caucus today marks the official start of the US primary season. There is no credible challenger to President Trump on the Republican side and so this piece will set out the likely political timeline ahead as Democrats choose their candidate. Continue reading “Democratic Primary Timeline”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The coronavirus continues to spread, leading Chinese policymakers to announce emergency support measures for the financial system
  • The dollar rally is taking a breather after weaker than expected Chicago PMI report last week
  • This is a big data week for the US; the US 3-month to 10-year curve inverted last week for the first time since October 9
  • US and Canada report January jobs data Friday; final eurozone and UK January PMIs will be reported this week
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.75% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The spread of the coronavirus continues and is likely to weigh on risk assets and EM; the dollar continues to climb
  • The FOMC meeting Wednesday is the highlight of the week and yet it’s likely to be a non-event
  • Risk-off sentiment has derailed the US curve steepening trade
  • The Bank of England meets Thursday and no change is expected; Germany has a heavy data week
  • Japan has a heavy data week, with most reports coming on Friday; Australia reports Q4 CPI Wednesday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Norges Bank Preview

Norway is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Norges Bank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Thursday. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is increasing with the recent collapse of the government. Continue reading “Norges Bank Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar continues to climb; after last week’s huge US data dump, releases this week are fairly light; the US economy is still doing well
  • BOC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%
  • ECB meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady; UK reports jobs data Tuesday
  • Norges Bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • BOJ meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady; Australia reports December jobs data Thursday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”