Norges Bank Preview

Norway is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Norges Bank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Thursday. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is increasing with the recent collapse of the government. Continue reading “Norges Bank Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar continues to climb; after last week’s huge US data dump, releases this week are fairly light; the US economy is still doing well
  • BOC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%
  • ECB meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady; UK reports jobs data Tuesday
  • Norges Bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • BOJ meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady; Australia reports December jobs data Thursday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Bank of Canada Preview

Bank of Canada meets next week. Data have been coming in soft, but it seems too soon to expect a rate cut. Markets are pricing in steady rates this year but may have to adjust expectations if the economy continues to weaken. Continue reading “Bank of Canada Preview”

UK Economy Continues to Suffer

The next Bank of England meeting is January 30 and it will be Governor Carney’s last. He has made some very dovish comments recently, and other MPC members have followed suit. The economy is slowing significantly and so markets should be bracing for a potential cut then. Continue reading “UK Economy Continues to Suffer”

Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners. This suggests there will still be many minor trade skirmishes this year. Continue reading “Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • US-Iran tensions have eased.  Or have they?
  • Trade tensions are likely to remain on the back burner
  • This week sees a 1-2-3-4 punch of December US data with CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, retail sales Thursday, and IP Friday
  • The Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming January 29 FOMC meeting on Wednesday
  • The UK has a big data week; Japan has a fairly heavy data week Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict

In this piece we try to answer some of the lingering questions following the events in Iran and explore resulting opportunities. Continue reading “Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict”

Some Thoughts (and Prayers) on the Australian Wildfires

The wildfires rage on in Australia. Here, we discuss the potential economic impact and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy. Ongoing uncertainty is likely to weigh on the Australian dollar for now, but there is scope for equities and bonds to outperform in 2020. It is very difficult to bring a dispassionate, analytical voice to such a tragedy, and our hearts go out to our friends and colleagues in Australia.

Continue reading “Some Thoughts (and Prayers) on the Australian Wildfires”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • Geopolitical concerns are roiling global markets
  • Recent price action in the dollar has been confounding, to put it mildly
  • The US has a busy data week, capped off with December jobs data Friday; the US economy is still doing better than anticipated in Q4
  • Canada has a busy data week; final eurozone and UK services and composite PMI readings will be seen Monday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”