Dollar and Equities Soft as Markets Return to Risk-Off Territory

  • We are facing a classic risk off move from recent geopolitical events
  • Recent price action in the FX market has proven difficult to analyze
  • The US has a busy data week, capped off with December jobs data Friday
  • UK and eurozone reported strong final December services and composite PMIs
  • The Chinese government appointed a new head of the liaison office for Hong Kong Continue reading “Dollar and Equities Soft as Markets Return to Risk-Off Territory”

Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Holiday

  • The dollar continues to slide, but let’s keep things in perspective
  • During the North American session, there will only be minor US data reported
  • Likely candidates to replace outgoing Labour leader Corbyn suggest the party has learned nothing from the disastrous election
  • South Africa reported November money and private sector credit; Turkey reported November trade
  • Vice Premier Liu will travel to the US this Saturday to sign the Phase One trade deal; China reported official December PMIs
  • Singapore Prime Minister Lee said the economy managed to avoid recession in 2019 Continue reading “Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Holiday”

Dollar Weakness Carries Over but Higher US Rates Lend Some Support

  • The foreign currencies were broadly firmer last week and that trend continues this week
  • Despite the holiday, the US has a fairly heavy data week that contains the first major snapshots of December
    Brazil reports November consolidated budget data
  • EU Trade Commissioner Hogan predicted that the UK is likely to abandon its opposition to a Brexit transition extension
  • Korea November IP contracted -0.3% y/y vs. -0.4% expected; Hong Kong reported better than expected November trade data Continue reading “Dollar Weakness Carries Over but Higher US Rates Lend Some Support”

Dollar Firm Ahead of the Holidays

  • The dollar continues to gain traction as the US economic outlook improves
  • Mexico October GDP proxy is expected to contract -0.60% y/y vs. +0.06% in September
  • Sterling remains under pressure; Japan reported November supermarket sales
  • Sri Lanka appointed a new central bank governor Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of the Holidays”

Dollar Remains Resilient as Sterling Continues to Slide

  • The dollar remains resilient; the US economy is still doing better than anticipated in Q4
  • November Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be reported; Canada reports October GDP
  • Mexico mid-December CPI is expected to rise 2.71% y/y; Colombia central bank releases its minutes
  • Sterling continues to slide; Central Bank of Russia releases its quarterly monetary policy report
  • Relations between Japan and South Korea are thawing; Korea reported trade data for the first twenty days of December; Taiwan is planning to ramp up purchases of US agricultural goods Continue reading “Dollar Remains Resilient as Sterling Continues to Slide”

Dollar Gains Traction as US Rates Move Higher

  • The dollar continues to gain traction; US rates continue to do their part to support the greenback
  • The US reports a fair amount of data; Canada reports October retail sales
  • Brazil mid-December IPCA inflation is expected to rise 3.81% y/y; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady; Mexico cut 25 bp yesterday, as expected
  • Andrew Bailey was chosen to succeed Mark Carney as BOE Governor; UK reported revised Q3 GDP data
  • Japan reported November national CPI; Reserve Bank of India announced a program to flatten the local yield curve Continue reading “Dollar Gains Traction as US Rates Move Higher”

Dollar Modestly Softer on Huge Central Bank Day

  • There will be quite a lot of US data coming out; Mexico is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 7.25%
  • BOE is expected to keep rates steady at 0.75%
  • Norges Bank kept rates steady at 1.5% and the Riksbank hiked rates by 25 bp to zero, both as expected
  • BOJ kept rates steady at -0.10%, Indonesia kept rates on hold at 5.0%, Taiwan kept rates steady at 1.375%, all as expected
  • Australia reported November jobs data; PBOC continues down its easing path Continue reading “Dollar Modestly Softer on Huge Central Bank Day”

Dollar Firms as Brexit Concerns Linger

  • The dollar continues to get some traction; Canada reports November CPI
  • UK November CPI came in slightly higher than expected; German IFO surprised to the upside
  • Czech National Bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.0%
  • Japan reported another weak month of trade data; Thailand kept rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected
  • PBOC made a marginal adjustment to its 14-day reverse repo rate; HKD continues to firm Continue reading “Dollar Firms as Brexit Concerns Linger”

Sterling Pounded on BoJo Brinkmanship

  • Fears of a hard Brexit are still alive and well; the dollar is getting some traction
  • There is some minor US data out today; Brazil COPOM minutes will be released
  • Ahead of the BOE decision Thursday, UK data continue to come in weak; Hungary is expected to keep rates steady at 0.90%
  • RBA minutes were released overnight Continue reading “Sterling Pounded on BoJo Brinkmanship”