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- The dollar has finally gotten some traction
- The US data highlight this week will be June retail sales today
- The 3-month to 10-year US curve is finally back to positive territory
- The UK reported mixed labor market data
- RBA minutes were released; New Zealand Q2 CPI came in at 1.7% y/y, as expected
- Pakistan is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 13.25%; Argentina June CPI is expected to rise 2.6% m/m Continue reading “Dollar Firms on Potential Turnaround Tuesday”
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- The dollar remains under pressure after Powell’s testimony last week
- The first of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will be reported today
- There are some signs that US recession fears are receding
- China data have come in mixed for June; Colombia reports May manufacturing production and retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Remains Under Pressure Post-Powell”
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- US yields continue to drop despite the Fed’s dovish capitulation and the US-China trade truce
- The fact that the dollar is holding up well in this environment suggests the move in US yields is not occurring in a vacuum
- ADP today will round out the jobs picture, where a 140k gain is expected
- Swedish Riksbank kept rates steady at -0.25%, as expected; BOJ tweaked its bond purchase program
- Caixin reported weak June services and composite PMI readings; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5% Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as US Yields Plunge Ahead of Holiday”
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- Markets are searching for direction and three of them warn of a reversal in risk sentiment for the worse
- Just as US tensions with China seem to be easing, they are picking up with Europe
- The euro is benefiting from reports that Italy is backing down from its budget confrontation with the EU
- UK PMI readings for June continued today with a much weaker than expected construction PMI of 43.1
- RBA cut rates 25 bp to 1.0%, as expected
- Korea June CPI was steady at 0.7% y/y; USD/HKD traded at its lowest level since September Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Post-G20 Euphoria Wanes”
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- Market sentiment was given a shot in the arm by the G20 meeting
- Reduced US recession risk supports our view that the market needs to adjust its Fed easing expectations
- This process should help the dollar gain even more traction
- Weak eurozone final June manufacturing PMI readings were reported; UK manufacturing PMI was 48.0
- Oil prices jumped on reports of an extension of OPEC+ output cuts
- EM so far has reported weak PMI readings for June Continue reading “Dollar Firm in Wake of G20 Summit”
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- The dollar is closing out Q2 on a soft note; our upcoming FX Quarterly stresses that Q3 will be a waiting game
- The G20 highlight is the Trump and Xi meeting Saturday morning at 1130 AM local time
- During the North American session, the US has a busy data schedule
- Eurozone reported preliminary June CPI steady at 1.2% y/y; Sweden reported weak May retail sales
- Japan reported a slew of data; BOJ tweaked its bond purchase plans for July
- Banco de Mexico delivered a dovish hold yesterday; South Africa reports May trade and budget data Continue reading “Dollar Ends Eventful Quarter on a Soft Note”
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- Markets continue to search for direction ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting in Osaka
- Trump has already given markets plenty to digest
- US reports revised Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales, and June KC Fed manufacturing index
- Germany reports preliminary June CPI; Japan reported May retail sales
- Brazil central bank releases its quarterly inflation report; Banco de Mexico is expected to keep rates steady at 8.25% Continue reading “Dollar Mixed As Markets Await Fresh Drivers”
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- The dollar got a boost from Fed speakers yesterday; Trump comments snuffed that rally
- There appears to be a thaw in US-China relations; US companies are finding ways around the Huawei blacklisting
- RBNZ kept rates steady at 1.5%, as expected
- MSCI announced that Kuwait will be added to its EM index; Malaysia May CPI was steady at 0.2% y/y
- Thailand kept rates steady at 1.75%, as expected; Czech National Bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.0% Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as US-China Relations Improve”
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- The dollar remains under pressure this week, as we expected
- Geopolitical tensions have risen in the Middle East; US officials sought to downplay expectations for the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting
- The Chicago Fed National Index (CFNAI) for May came out yesterday at -0.05 vs. -0.20 expected
- Dallas Fed President Kaplan expressed a counter-trend view regarding lower rates
- National Bank of Hungary is expected to keep the main policy rate steady at 0.9% Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Geopolitical Tensions Rise”
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