Dollar Firm Ahead of US Retail Sales and IP Data

  • The dollar rally continues; the US data highlight today will be January retail sales and IP
  • The Fed announced that it will cut back on its repo operations again starting today
  • Senate confirmation for Fed nominee Judy Shelton will be a close call
  • Banco de Mexico cut rates by 25 bp to 7.0% yesterday; Brazil central bank intervened in the FX markets
  • Sterling is holding up after yesterday’s gains following the cabinet reshuffle; Eurozone Q4 GDP grew 0.9% y/y
  • Japan’s parliament confirmed Seiji Adachi to replace outgoing BOJ board member Yutaka Harada Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of US Retail Sales and IP Data”

Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony

  • The dollar’s gains have been broad-based
  • During the North American session, the US reports January CPI; Fed Chair Powell delivers his semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the House
  • UK reported mixed data today
  • Philippine exports surged 21.4% y/y in December while Fitch moved the outlook on its BBB rating from stable to positive
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision comes out tonight after US markets have closed Continue reading “Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony”

Markets on Edge as New Week Begins

  • The coronavirus death toll is just over 900, exceeding the SARS epidemic; the dollar remains firm
  • President Trump will unveil his budget proposal for FY2021 beginning October 1 today
  • The faltering eurozone economy comes just as political uncertainty is picking up in Germany
  • Norway inflation spiked in January; Turkish local rates spiked after regulators cut the FX swap limits for local banks
  • Japan reported December current account data; China January CPI came in at 5.4% y/y in January, higher than expected Continue reading “Markets on Edge as New Week Begins”

Dollar Firm Ahead of US Jobs Report

  • The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise; the dollar continues to climb
  • The January jobs data is the highlight for the week; Canada also reports jobs data
  • The Fed submits its semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress today; Mexico and Brazil report January inflation data
  • The downdraft in eurozone industrial data continues; Russia cut rates 25 bp to 6.0% and signaled more easing ahead
  • RBA upbeat but Governor Lowe warns of “significant areas of uncertainty”
  • Japan reported weak December cash earnings and household spending; emerging Asia focuses on stimulus Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of US Jobs Report”

Dollar Firm as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

  • China cut tariffs on $75 bln of US imports by half, while the US said it could reciprocate in some way
  • The dollar continues to climb; during the North American session, only minor data will be reported; Brazil cut rates 25 bp
  • Germany reported very weak December factory orders; all is not well in the German state of Thuringia
  • Czech expected to keep rates steady; Philippines cut 25 bp; India remained on hold
  • Australia reported December trade and retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Markets Await Fresh Drivers”

Dollar Mixed as Risk Appetite Improves

  • Markets rallied in the early London session after headlines of a “significant breakthrough” for coronavirus vaccine
  • The dollar continues to climb; ADP reports its private sector jobs estimate; betting markets have responded to the partial results from the Iowa caucus
  • Brazil COPOM is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.25%; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • UK and eurozone reported strong final January PMI readings
  • Thailand unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bp to 1.00%; Monetary Authority of Singapore sent a dovish signal to the markets Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Risk Appetite Improves”

Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns

  • The dollar continues to climb; one of side-effects of the virus has been a swelling of the amount of negative yielding debt globally
  • The US primary season got off to a rocky start for the Democrats
  • During the North American session, December factory orders will be reported; the US economy remains strong
  • The UK reported January construction PMI
  • The RBA held rates at 0.75%, as expected; Korea January CPI came in hot at 1.5% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns”

Dollar Rally Back on Track

  • Growth concerns continue to reverberate across global markets
  • The dollar rally back on track after a hiccup from the weaker than expected Chicago PMI
  • This is a big data week for the US; the US economy remains strong yet the US 3-month to 10-year curve remains inverted
  • Sterling is on the backfoot as PM Boris Johnson steps up his confrontational approach
  • Turkish CPI surprised on the upside at 12.15% y/y, putting the central bank in an even harder position
  • Chinese equity markets re-opened after the extended closure to the tune of a near 8% decline Continue reading “Dollar Rally Back on Track”