The negative virus news stream continues to weigh on market sentiment; yet the dollar safe haven bid is ebbing
Any post-election stimulus deal will be very difficult; US data highlight is Chicago PMI; weekly jobless claims data suggest modest improvement continues in the labor market
Exxon announced job cuts of 14k globally as low oil prices continue to cut into its margins; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%.
The ECB delivered a dovish hold, as expected; eurozone reported Q3 GDP, preliminary October CPI, and September unemployment
Global equity markets are gaining limited traction today after yesterday’s bloodbath; that sell-off helped test a now prevalent hedging thesis for investors
The dollar remains bid; US Q3 GDP data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will be reported
BOC delivered a dovish hold yesterday; Canada Finance Minister Freeland defended the government’s aggressive fiscal stimulus plans; Brazil left rates unchanged, as expected
ECB is expected to deliver a dovish hold; Germany reports October CPI; Hungary is expected to snug rates higher to help support the forint
The negative virus news stream is weighing on sentiment; implied volatility measures are starting to move higher, especially in the equity space; the dollar is bid today
Stimulus will have to wait until after the election, if at all; there are two election scenarios that would likely lead to fiscal expansion; early voting figures continue to come in at a rapid pace with some 70 mln votes cast
Canada and Brazil are expected to keep rates steady; Turkey central bank released its quarterly inflation report
Harsh lockdown measures by France and Germany will weigh on the economic outlook; we are becoming increasingly concerned about anti-lockdown protests across the region; Spain reported September retail sales
Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note
Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in
US manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Chile’s referendum on a new constitution passed in a landslide
Brexit negotiations have been extended; Germany’s October IFO survey came in on the weak side; TRY has depreciated past the psychologically important 8.0 level against the dollar
Gilead’s remdesivir got the go-ahead from the FDA; pressure on the dollar has resumed; faint hopes for a stimulus deal are fading; resistance from the Republicans is building
The final US presidential debate was far more civil, but probably inconsequential; Markit preliminary US October PMI readings will be reported
Eurozone preliminary October PMI readings were mixed; UK reported weak preliminary October PMI readings and firm September retail sales; TRY remains under pressure after yesterday’s dovish surprise
Japan reported September national CPI and preliminary October PMI readings; BOJ is not expected to change policy next week; Australia reported solid preliminary October PMI readings; NZ reported low Q3 CPIContinue reading “Pressure on the Dollar Resumes”
Geopolitical tensions have risen after US officials accused Russia and Iran of meddling in the elections; the dollar has caught a modest bid today
Stimulus talks continue; Pelosi warned that a deal may not come together before the November 3 election; whether Republican Senators change their minds after the elections depends on the outcome
Measures of cross-asset volatility suggest a far too generous interpretation of the odds for a clean Democratic sweep; KC Fed survey and weekly jobless claims will be reported; Mexico reports mid-October CPI
The UK has agreed to come back to the Brexit negotiating table; Israel is expected to keep rates at 0.10%; Turkey is expected to hike rates 175 bp
Japan reported weak September department store sales; LDP tax chief Amari said the government will put together a third supplementary budget this year; China is preparing a possible administrative measure to allow greater capital outflowsContinue reading “Dollar Catches Modest Bid but Weakness to Resume”
The dollar remains under pressure as markets chase the reflation trade; stimulus talks continue; Senate Majority Leader McConnell holds the key
The 10-year UST yield traded today at the highest since June 9; the Fed releases its Beige Book report
UK inflation came in lower than expected September; Brexit negotiations seem to be moving towards a favorable outcome; there was very strong demand for the EU’s first-ever social bonds
The dollar is coming under pressure again; markets are finally waking up to the fact that a stimulus deal before 2021 is unlikely; 10-year Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range for months
The quiet US data week continues; Ireland broke from the pattern of how other European countries are tightening mobility rules; Hungary is expected to keep the base rate steady at 0.60%.
Japan reported September convenience store sales; dovish RBA remains dovish; RBNZ Governor Orr tried to out-dove the RBA
