Pessimism regarding a Phase One trade deal has intensified; further muddying the waters are recent US Congressional actions

FOMC minutes contained no surprises; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November continue

South Africa is expected to cut rates by 25 bp to 6.25%

Korea reported trade data for the first twenty days of November; Indonesia kept rates steady at 5.0%, as expected Continue reading “Dollar and Equities Sink as Trade Pessimism Rises”

• The US Senate unanimously passed a bill in support of the Hong Kong protestors, inviting retaliatory threats from China
• FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports October CPI
• A snap poll after the first UK debate gave a slight edge to Prime Minister Johnson
• South Africa’s CPI came in slightly below expectations, bolstering our out-of-consensus call for a cut by the SARB tomorrow
• Japan and Taiwan reported weak trade data; PBOC shaved 5 bp off benchmark Loan Prime Rates Continue reading “Dollar Firms as US-China Tensions Flare”

• Press reports suggest that the mood in Beijing is pessimistic after President Trump pushed back against tariff rollbacks
• Fed Chair Powell met with President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin yesterday
• Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; the deadline to form a government in Israel is fast approaching
• RBA released dovish minutes from its November policy meeting Continue reading “Dollar Stabilizes as Markets Await Fresh Drivers”

• Markets continue to dance to the tune of trade headlines
• During the North American session, the highlight is US October retail sales
• Banco de Mexico cut rates yesterday by 25 bp to 7.50%, as expected
• Israel October CPI is expected to rise 0.5% y/y
• Hong Kong tensions are likely to worsen; Malaysia reported Q3 GDP Continue reading “Dollar Mixed Ahead of US Retail Sales Data”

• US-China talks have reportedly hit a snag
• In yesterday’s appearance before the Joint Economic Committee, Powell covered no new ground
• Chile central bank will offer $4 bln of 30- and 90-day currency swaps to help support the peso; Mexico is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 7.5%
• Eurozone reported solid preliminary Q3 GDP data; UK retail sales came in weaker than expected in October
• Japan reported weak Q3 GDP data; Australia reported weak October jobs data; China reported weak October IP and retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Key US Data”

• Uncertainty about the US-China trade deal has weighed on risk appetite
• During the North American session, the US reports October CPI and budget data
• Reports suggest President Trump has asked his economic advisors to explore a tax cut ahead of the 2020 elections
• UK reported lower than expected October CPI data; Spain is moving towards a left-leaning coalition faster than expected
• RBNZ unexpectedly kept rates steady at 1.0% Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold”

• With US-China talks ongoing, we got some good trade news from Europe
• President Trump speaks before the New York Economic Club today
• The UK Conservative party – and the pound – received a boost yesterday on news that the Brexit Party will not run against them in the elections
• UK labor market data was mixed; German data continue to suggest small green shoots; Japan reported weak October machine tool orders Continue reading “Dollar Firm as US Returns from Holiday”

• Markets should be prepared for negative headlines as we approach the endgame of the first stage of the US-China trade deal
• Due to the US holiday, there are no US data reports
• The political campaign in the UK has shifted into high gear; UK data came in largely weaker than expected
• Spain’s election went roughly as expected: back to political limbo
• Japan reported weak September core machine orders; China reported weak October money and loan data Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Risk-off Impulses Take Hold”