Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • Last week was one of the worst ones for the dollar since early December, but let’s put things in perspective
  • The FOMC meets Wednesday and is the highlight of the week
  • There is a fair amount of US data to be reported this week
  • Eurozone flash PMI readings for March will be reported Friday
  • UK Parliament is scheduled to hold a third vote on Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal; The Bank of England meets Thursday
  • Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank also meet Thursday
  • It’s another busy week for EM central banks

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Sterling Rallies on Likely Brexit Delay

  • Sterling is the big mover after the UK parliament soundly rejected May’s Brexit plan yesterday
  • The UK parliament will vote whether nor not to go for a hard Brexit, which is likely to fail
  • US data have not been helpful for the dollar
  • Japan reported weak core machine orders for January
  • The HKMA defended the HKD peg for a second day; Mexico January IP is expected to contract -2.0% y/y

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Dollar Soft Ahead of UK Brexit Vote

  • The dollar remains under pressure from weak data and budget uncertainty
  • Next up are the inflation readings
  • May made a last-ditch attempt at a deal; UK parliament votes on her latest Brexit plan
  • Sweden reported lower than expected February CPI
  • The Philippine central bank’s new Governor Diokno affirmed his dovish leanings
  • India reports February CPI and January IP; Brazil reports February IPCA inflation

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar is seeing some profit-taking after the jobs report
  • The US data schedule is jam-packed this week
  • The UK parliament is scheduled to vote on May’s Brexit plan Tuesday
  • Bank of Japan meets Friday and is expected to keep policy on hold
  • Norway and Sweden both report February CPI this week
  • China reports February IP and retail sales Thursday

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Dollar Consolidates Yesterday’s Gains Ahead of US Jobs Data

  • Draghi delivered more than we expected at this meeting, markets were clearly disappointed overall
  • The US February jobs data could be an important catalyst for an even higher US dollar
  • Canada reports February jobs data too; Germany reported weak January factory orders
  • China February trade data came in much worse than expected
  • The EU reportedly made a new Brexit offer to the UK
  • EM FX has sold off sharply after the ECB decision and this trend should continue
  • Taiwan February trade data confirmed the mainland reading

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Dollar Mixed as Markets Mark Time Ahead of ECB

  • Global markets are relatively calm and marking time
  • ECB decision will be the highlight today
  • The Fed delivered a somewhat cautious Beige Book yesterday
  • During the North American session, Fed Governor Brainard speaks 
  • The Loonie remains vulnerable after the BOC delivered the dovish hold yesterday; Australia data was mixed
  • Mexico February CPI is expected to rise 3.94% y/y; Peru central bank is expected to keep rates steady at 2.75%

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Dollar Rally Continues Ahead of ADP Report

  • ADP releases its estimate of private sector jobs and +190k is expected
  • The Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming March 20 FOMC meeting
  • Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%
  • Brexit talks have reportedly broken down (again)
  • The OECD cut its global growth forecast (again)
  • Turkey central bank kept rates steady at 24.0%, as expected; National Bank of Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%

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Dollar Rally Continues as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

  • The dollar rally remains on track even as markets calm after yesterday’s volatile session
  • Final February services and composite PMI readings for the eurozone were reported
  • UK reported the last of the February PMI readings
  • China lowered its growth target for this year at the annual National People’s Conference
  • Japan reported February services and composite PMIs
  • Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady, as expected; same for Bank Negara
  • Philippines CPI rose 3.8% y/y vs. 4.0% expected as a new central bank governor was chosen

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar rally continues despite President Trump’s complaints over the weekend that it is too strong
  • The US 10-year yield traded at 2.76%, the highest since January 28
  • The February jobs data Friday could be an important catalyst for even higher US yields
  • ECB meeting Thursday will be the highlight of the week in Europe
  • China’s annual National People’s Conference begins in Beijing Tuesday; reports suggest the US and China are nearing a deal on trade
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday; Bank of Canada meets Wednesday
  • It’s another busy week of EM central bank meetings

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