Dollar Firm as Weak UK Data Weighs on Sterling

  • The dollar is edging higher to cap off a solid week overall
  • US December IP will be the highlight, but there will be a lot of other US data today as well
  • Ahead of the ECB meeting next Thursday, the account of the last one was released yesterday
  • Weak UK retail sales data have added fuel to speculation of BOE easing
  • Data out of China came in on the stronger side; Korea left rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Weak UK Data Weighs on Sterling”

Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data

  • There were no surprises in the US-China Phase One trade deal
  • The dollar is drifting lower ahead of the key retail sales data; there are other minor US data out today
  • Bank of England credit survey showed demand for loans fell in Q4
  • Turkey cut its one-week repo rate by 75 bps to 11.25%; South Africa is expected to keep rates steady at 6.5%
  • Japan reported November core machine orders and December PPI; China’s credit numbers for December showed no big change in lending Continue reading “Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data”

Dollar Mixed Ahead of Phase One Signing

  • Less sanguine headlines about the next stage of the US-China trade negotiations set off a gentile risk-off episode
  • Today sees the next leg of the December US data dump with PPI
  • Fed manufacturing surveys for January kick off with Empire manufacturing; the Fed also releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming January 29 FOMC meeting
  • Calls for a BOE rate cut are getting louder; Germany reported 2019 GDP and budget data
  • Israel December CPI is expected to rise 0.6% y/y; Japan reported weak December machine tool orders Continue reading “Dollar Mixed Ahead of Phase One Signing”

Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Ease

China will no longer be labeled a currency manipulator; the dollar continues to gain traction

This week sees a 1-2-3-4 punch of major December US data starting with CPI today

Markets are starting to get a taste of just how difficult it will be for the UK and EU to strike a trade deal by year-end; French pension reform appears to be creeping forward

Japan reported November current account data; China exports jumped 7.6% y/y in December, much higher than expected but due largely to base effects Continue reading “Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Ease”

Dollar Firm as Sterling Pounded by Weak UK Data and Dovish BOE

Iran and trade are likely on the back burner for now; the dollar is clawing back its post-jobs data losses

During the North American session, there is little scheduled ahead of the US data deluge later this week

Weak UK data and an increasingly dovish BOE are weighing on sterling

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen was reelected in a landslide, creating another political headache for China; Bank Indonesia signaled it will not lean against rupiah appreciation Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Sterling Pounded by Weak UK Data and Dovish BOE”

Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Jobs Data

  • The debate over the cause of Ukrainian jet crash continues to rage on, but with few consequences for markets; we remain bullish as the dollar continues to edge higher
  • The US December jobs data is the highlight; Canada also reports December jobs data
  • Brazil December IPCA inflation is expected to rise to 4.24% y/y
  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed his Withdrawal Agreement bill through the final hurdle in the House of Commons yesterday
  • Japan reported weak November household spending; Australia reported firm November retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Jobs Data”

Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

  • Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction
  • The North American session is quiet in terms of US data
  • Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%
  • German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney
  • Israel is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%
  • China reported December CPI and PPI; Thailand announced new measures to lean against currency strength Continue reading “Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease”

Dollar Firm, Markets Fairly Calm After Iran Retaliates

  • Markets didn’t have to wait long for Iran to retaliate; the dollar continues to gain traction
  • The spike in oil prices should be on the Fed’s radar screen; WIRP suggests that a 25 bp rate cut is now fully priced in for 2020
  • ADP jobs, weekly mortgage applications and November consumer credit will be reported
  • German factory orders for November contracted sharply by -1.3% m/m (-6.5% y/y), far worse than expected; BOE Governor Carney made some dovish comments
  • Japan reported weaker than expected November cash earnings; AUD made a new low for this move overnight near .6850 but has since stabilized Continue reading “Dollar Firm, Markets Fairly Calm After Iran Retaliates”

Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Ease

  • Risk-off impulses have eased but the situation remains fragile
  • US and Canada data schedule is heavy today
  • Eurozone preliminary December inflation accelerated to 1.3% y/y, as expected; After eight months of deadlock in Spain, it looks as if Pedro Sanchez will be able to form a government
  • Markit reported weak final December Japan services and composite PMI readings; AUD continues to underperform
  • Onshore CNY has appreciated 0.4% to its strongest level against USD since August; Philippines December CPI came in much higher than expected Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Ease”