Dollar Soft as US Data Continue to Disappoint

  • The dollar remains under pressure as US data this week continue to disappoint
  • Canada reports October trade and November Ivey PMI; Chile central bank kept rates on hold yesterday
  • Data out of the eurozone came in decidedly weak today; the euro remains stuck below the $1.11 area even as sterling powers higher
  • Japan announced a large stimulus package to boost growth; Australia reported weaker than expected data
  • India unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 5.15% Continue reading “Dollar Soft as US Data Continue to Disappoint”

Dollar Stabilizes, Markets Calm on Positive Trade Headlines

  • Sanguine headlines about progress in Phase One has given risk appetite a boost today
  • ADP reports private sector jobs and consensus sees 135k; BOC is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%
  • Chile central bank is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 1.5%; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • Sterling broke out on the upside of its trading range; final November PMIs in Europe and the UK were largely positive
  • Japan’s parliament passed the trade deal with the US; Hong Kong announced another round of stimulus Continue reading “Dollar Stabilizes, Markets Calm on Positive Trade Headlines”

Dollar Soft on Weak Data and the Return of Tariff Man

  • The dollar has taken a hit from the weaker than expected data Monday
  • Tariff man is back
  • The US economy remains solid in Q4 but there are some worrying signs for the November jobs data Friday
  • The political pressure on Turkey from the US could increase soon; South Africa’s Q3 GDP came in well below expectations at -0.6% q/q and 0.1% y/y
  • Japan JGB auction went poorly on supply concerns ahead of planned fiscal stimulus; RBA kept rates steady at 0.75% but the outlook was upbeat Continue reading “Dollar Soft on Weak Data and the Return of Tariff Man”

Dollar Firm as New Month Begins

  • The dollar had a stellar November after a shaky October, and gains should continue in December
  • A Phase One trade deal remains elusive; November ISM manufacturing PMI will be reported
  • With ten days to go, the Conservative Party lead in the polls has narrowed; eurozone and UK reported final manufacturing PMIs
  • Turkey’s Q3 GDP rose 0.9% y/y, slightly below expectations; oil prices remain volatile ahead of the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna Thursday
  • China reported November PMIs and brought a welcome dose of optimism to the region Continue reading “Dollar Firm as New Month Begins”

Dollar Firm in Posting a Strong Week and Month

  • There has been very little new information for markets to digest over the Thanksgiving period
  • There are no US data releases or Fed speakers today; Canada Q3 GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.3% SAAR
  • Preliminary November CPI for the eurozone came in a 1.0% y/y for November, slightly higher than expected
  • Korea left rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected; India Q3 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% y/y
  • China reports official November PMI readings Saturday local time Continue reading “Dollar Firm in Posting a Strong Week and Month”

Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Holiday

  • The dollar continues to edge higher; markets are showing some signs of fatigue towards positive trade headlines
  • November Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming December 11 FOMC meeting
  • Brazilian central bank intervened in the FX market for the first time since last August
  • In the UK, it’s all about the polls now
  • Thailand manufacturing production was weaker than expected Continue reading “Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Holiday”

Dollar Builds on Recent Gains

  • The dollar remains resilient; optimism towards a Phase One deal continues to support risk appetite
  • There was also optimism from Fed Chairman Powell yesterday; the US economy is not out of the woods yet
  • Turkish President Erdogan started deploying Russia’s S-400 missile system, raising the specter of sanctions
  • Hong Kong reported weak October trade data; Philippine central bank Governor Diokno said a December cut was possible Continue reading “Dollar Builds on Recent Gains”

Dollar Remains Resilient

  • China announced it will strengthen its oversight of intellectual property (IP) violations, one the biggest points of contention in the trade talks
  • It is a holiday shortened week in the US, but there are still some major data releases
  • After the three largest UK parties delivered their manifestos, we can be sure of one thing:  there will be more fiscal spending
  • German IFO survey today came in as expected
  • Local elections in Hong Kong gave an overwhelming majority to pro-democracy candidates; Japan-Korea tensions have eased but questions remain Continue reading “Dollar Remains Resilient”

Dollar Edges Higher as Data Elsewhere Disappoint

  • US and China continue to work on a Phase One trade deal; Congress and the White House were unable to finalize a deal on USMCA
  • Canada reports retail sales; Mexico and Brazil inflation readings should support further easing
  • The Labour Party unveiled its manifesto yesterday, confirming its radical platform; UK and eurozone PMIs were weaker than expected
  • Japan reported weak data; Australia PMI readings disappointed Continue reading “Dollar Edges Higher as Data Elsewhere Disappoint”