Profiles of China, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey.
In the Americas, SQM is expected to be a long term focus of demand as they are one of the top four companies controlling the roughly $3 billion global lithium market. In Asia, analysts predict that shares in the smartphone manufacturer, Xiaomi Corp, could fall further if the company loses market share to Huawei. In Europe, A mixed week for UK energy firm Ophir as it loses a key exploration license and then receives a takeover offer.
- Congress did not meet over the weekend and so the partial shutdown continues
- Investors are starting to mark down US growth forecasts for Q4 and Q1
- US reports December PPI Tuesday and then retail sales Wednesday
- This is another week with a heavy speaking schedule for Fed officials
- Weak China December trade data is adding to risk-off sentiment
- UK Parliament is schedule to hold its Brexit vote Tuesday
- UK, Japan, and Canada report CPI data this week
- Central banks of Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia meet
EM FX ended the week on a soft note after rallying most of the week on the dovish shift in the Fed’s messaging. Until US rates adjust back to pricing in no US recession, it will be hard for the dollar to maintain much traction and so this EM bounce can continue. Yet other risks to EM remain in place, including slower growth in China and globally.
In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists provide their views on major events across developed and emerging markets in Q1 2019.
In the Americas, Tencent Music, which owns the four largest music apps in China, has seen lending volumes and fees jump after the Chinese manufacturing sector reported its first contraction in 2 years. In Asia, we have seen strong long term lending demand for Pilbara Minerals Ltd following a 38% decline in its share price in 2018. In Europe, China slowdown weighing on European luxury sector.
In the US, as directional demand for Buckle(BKE) continues to be strong for the struggling retailer combined with high market utilization, fee levels have remained elevated. In Asia, Samsung Group’s biotechnology arm surged last week after it avoided a delisting. Bonmarche (BON LN) also suffered this week as the retailer blamed Brexit for a lack of trade
In the US, with the deal expected to close in Q1 of 2019, trading volume and velocity of SIRI shares have increased. In, Asia, Takeda Pharmaceutical’s shareholders approved a $62 billion acquisition of Shire Plc, enabling the company to continue its quest to become a global drug giant. In Europe, A seesaw week for Thomas Cook as Moody’s downgrades the travel operators outlook to negative.
In the US, ROKU is trading at roughly three times their IPO price while ARLO is half of what it was in August. Shares in Japan’s largest messaging platform company soared last week after the Nikkei newspaper reported a tie-up with Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings. In Europe, Viceroy Research rocks another South African firm with a new report citing accounting inconsistencies.