What Has Changed in EM

  • Philippines central bank said it will cut rates soon due to falling inflation
  • MAS cut its core inflation forecast for this year to 1-2% from 1.5-2.5% previously
  • Turkey’s government announced it will inject fresh capital into state-owned banks
  • Now that the election has passed, Turkey’s central bank is normalizing monetary policy
  • Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party appear to have won the Israeli elections.
  • Argentina’s government will reportedly freeze prices on some food items for six months
  • President Bolsonaro reportedly ordered Petrobras to cancel a planned increase in diesel fuel prices for “the greater good.”
  • Brazil pension reform looks more and more likely to be delayed
  • Ecuador expelled fugitive Julian Assange from its London embassy Continue reading “What Has Changed in EM”

DM Sovereign Rating Model For Q2 2019

We have produced this ratings model to assist investors in assessing relative sovereign risk over a wide range of Developed Markets (DM), 33 in all. We have decided to adhere to MSCI methodology and have moved Hong Kong, Israel, and Singapore from EM to DM. Continue reading “DM Sovereign Rating Model For Q2 2019”

DM Equity Allocation Model For Q2 2019

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe. Continue reading “DM Equity Allocation Model For Q2 2019”

Argentine Assets to Underperform as October Elections Approach

The IMF just approved a $10.8 bln tranche of aid to Argentina Friday, yet the peso continues to weaken to record levels. The economic backdrop is worsening even as political risk rises ahead of October elections, and so we believe Argentine assets are likely to continue underperforming this year. Continue reading “Argentine Assets to Underperform as October Elections Approach”

Israel Assets to Outperform Regardless of Election Outcome

The Bank of Israel just kept rates steady at 0.25%, as expected. Tomorrow, voters will elect the next government and polls suggest it’s a toss-up. Regardless of the election outcome, we believe strong economic fundamentals will allow Israeli assets to outperform this year.   Continue reading “Israel Assets to Outperform Regardless of Election Outcome”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

The dollar was firmer against the majors but softer against EM FX last week. This divergence is unlikely to last. Which is giving the true signal? We believe the broad-based dollar rally remains intact due to our constructive view on the US economy. As such, we expect EM FX to resume weakening in the coming days. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

What Has Changed in EM

  • Philippine central bank sounded a cautious note
  • Moody’s has given South Africa a reprieve
  • Argentina central bank said it won’t allow the LELIQ rate to drop below 62.5% this month
  • Chile central bank cut its 2019 growth and inflation forecasts Continue reading “What Has Changed in EM”

Sterling Sinks Despite Lower Risks of No-Deal Brexit

Last night’s UK Parliamentary vote was momentous. Parliament basically seized control of the Brexit process from Prime Minister May and passed a binding vote against a no-deal Brexit. And yet sterling and UK stocks are down today. Our base case remains one of a softer Brexit with a likely delay, whilst UK fundamentals deteriorate. Continue reading “Sterling Sinks Despite Lower Risks of No-Deal Brexit”

Uridashi Issuance in Q1 2019

So far this year, foreign currency Uridashi issuance has totaled $2.5 bln. Annualized, it amounts to $10 bln and would represent a slight increase from $8.9 bln in 2018 and $8.4 bln in 2017. However, it would fall short of the $11.8 bln issued in 2016. Continue reading “Uridashi Issuance in Q1 2019”