The weekend primary vote in Argentina suggests opposition candidate Fernandez will easily win the presidential vote October 27. Uncertainty in the runup to the vote should keep Argentina under pressure, but we think Fernandez may not be as bad as markets fear. We also downplay contagion risks, as Argentina is too small and isolated to have much impact. Continue reading “Some Thoughts on the Argentine Election”
EM is likely to remain under pressure as US -China relations remain strained. Despite his claims that things are going “very well”, President Trump admitted that the September talks might be cancelled. This is very negative for EM, which saw some stability towards the end of last week. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
The US Treasury named China as a currency manipulator, raising trade tensions further. A trade deal this year is now highly unlikely, and an extended trade war raises US recession risks. Still, we remain positive on the dollar and very negative on EM. Continue reading “Thoughts on US-China Relations and the Investment Implications”
The dollar is undergoing a correction as the slide in US interest rates accelerates in response to the renewed tariff threats. Once again, we think US rates markets are getting too pessimistic on the US outlook and so we are sticking with our broad macro calls that were working well until the tariff news hit last Thursday. Continue reading “Latest Thoughts on the US Economic Outlook”
EM remains under severe pressure. The less dovish than expected Fed, renewed trade tensions, and a broad-based dollar rally have conspired to absolutely crush EM FX and equities. These drivers are likely to carry over into this week and so we remain bearish on EM. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”