Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar has stabilized but weakness is likely to resume
  • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is trying to revive stalled stimulus talks; President-elect Biden will reportedly name his first cabinet picks Tuesday; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday; it’s a quiet week in the US due to the Thanksgiving holiday
  • Brexit talks continue this week; eurozone reports some key data this week; ECB publishes the account of the October 29 meeting Thursday
  • UK preliminary November PMI readings will be reported Monday; UK Chancellor Sunak will lay out his fiscal plans for next year Wednesday; Riksbank meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy unchanged; Japan has a pretty quiet week Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Most EM currencies were up last week, once again taking advantage of broad dollar weakness. In addition, EM equities also performed well, with MSCI EM up for the third week in a row and for seven of the past eight. We expect EM assets to continue benefiting from the global liquidity story as well as the weak dollar trend. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

“Benefits Cliff” Warns of Downside US Risks

The US faces a “benefits cliff” at year-end. With the economy already suffering from widening lockdowns across the country, the Q4 outlook is bad and the year-end expiration of emergency unemployment programs suggests Q1 may be even worse. All the more reason to pass another fiscal stimulus package, and possibly see increased Fed action. Continue reading ““Benefits Cliff” Warns of Downside US Risks”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The virus numbers in the US show no signs of slowing; the dollar should continue to soften
  • October retail sales Tuesday will be the US data highlight for the week; Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start to roll out; the Senate will hold a procedural vote this week to advance Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Board of Governors
  • Canada has an important data week; Brexit talks will (hopefully) wind up soon; UK reports key data
  • Japan and Australia have busy data weeks Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX is being pulled in two different directions. On one hand, the rising global virus numbers bode ill for global growth and so EM is likely to suffer. On the other hand, the weak dollar trend remains intact. Net net, we expect EM FX to continue strengthening, though divergence are likely to continue within EM. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • US virus numbers continue to rise; for now, the weak dollar trend remains intact
  • The election uncertainty has cleared up, at least partially; two Georgia Senate seats go to a runoff January 5; the Georgia races are key given their implications for the Blue Wave
  • We think chances of a stimulus package during the lame duck session are low; October inflation data will be the highlight for the US
  • Brexit talks continue in London this week; UK has a heavy data week; eurozone has a limited data week
  • Japan has a heavy data week; RBNZ meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX has taken advantage of continued dollar weakness in recent days. While the Blue Wave is still open to question until January, we think the underlying factors behind dollar weakness remain intact: rising virus numbers, a slowing US economy, an ultra-dovish Fed, and no near-term prospects for fiscal stimulus. That said, we expect to see continued divergence within EM FX. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

FOMC Preview

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Thursday afternoon. While no policy changes are expected, we highlight what the Fed may or may not do. We expect a dovish hold, with Powell underscoring the growing downside risks facing the US economy in Q4. While we are confident about our call for this meeting, the medium-term outlook will remain highly uncertain until we get a firm result from the US elections and a better grasp of how the pandemic will impact the economy. Continue reading “FOMC Preview”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • This is one of the most eventful weeks for the markets in recent memory
  • Election day is Tuesday in the US; the two-day FOMC meeting concludes with a likely dovish hold Thursday; October jobs data Friday will be the data highlight
  • BOE meets Thursday and is expected to increase its asset purchases by GBP100 bln; Brexit talks continue this week and reports suggest a compromise on fisheries is taking shape; eurozone reports some key data; ECB delivered a dovish hold last week; Norges Bank is expected to keep policy unchanged Thursday
  • Japan has a light week; last week, the BOJ kept all policy settings unchanged, as expected; RBA meets Tuesday and is expected to cut both the cash rate and the 3-year yield target 15 bp to 0.10%; Australia has a busy data week too Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”