Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • We get the first February data from the US manufacturing sector this week; the US economy remains strong; FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday
  • Canada reports some key data this week
  • Preliminary eurozone February PMI readings will be reported Friday; UK has a busy data week
  • Japan has a busy data week; Australia reports January jobs data Thursday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep EM under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still unknown.  Global growth was already at risk before the virus hit and now the outlook is even cloudier. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

Riksbank Preview

Sweden is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Riksbank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Wednesday. Continue reading “Riksbank Preview”

Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony

  • The dollar’s gains have been broad-based
  • During the North American session, the US reports January CPI; Fed Chair Powell delivers his semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the House
  • UK reported mixed data today
  • Philippine exports surged 21.4% y/y in December while Fitch moved the outlook on its BBB rating from stable to positive
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision comes out tonight after US markets have closed Continue reading “Dollar Treads Water Ahead of Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • Risk-off sentiment intensified last week; the dollar continues to climb
  • This is another big data week for the US; the US economy remains strong
  • Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Tuesday and the Senate Wednesday; the Senate holds confirmation hearings for Fed nominees Shelton and Waller Thursday
  • President Trump will unveil his budget proposal for FY2021 beginning October 1 this Monday
  • Eurozone and UK have heavy data weeks
  • Riksbank meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.0%; RBNZ meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk-off sentiment intensified last week.  Near-term, we think EM is likely to remain under pressure until the full impact of the coronavirus is better known.  On top of this, there is broad-based dollar strength.  Besides the safe haven flows, the US outlook remains very strong.  Taken in conjunction with the recent weak data out of Germany, France, and Japan, it’s clear that the US economy continues to outperform.  Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

Latest Thoughts on the US Outlook

The US yield curve flirted with inversion again. The US economic outlook remains solid and so we believe Fed easing expectations are overdone and see US rates at the long end rising further. Annual benchmark revisions to the jobs data Friday will not derail ongoing strength in the US labor market, which ultimately supports our strong dollar call. Continue reading “Latest Thoughts on the US Outlook”

Democratic Primary Timeline

The Iowa caucus today marks the official start of the US primary season. There is no credible challenger to President Trump on the Republican side and so this piece will set out the likely political timeline ahead as Democrats choose their candidate. Continue reading “Democratic Primary Timeline”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The coronavirus continues to spread, leading Chinese policymakers to announce emergency support measures for the financial system
  • The dollar rally is taking a breather after weaker than expected Chicago PMI report last week
  • This is a big data week for the US; the US 3-month to 10-year curve inverted last week for the first time since October 9
  • US and Canada report January jobs data Friday; final eurozone and UK January PMIs will be reported this week
  • Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 0.75% Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”