EM currencies were mixed in 2020 and the divergences are likely to continue in 2021. Best performers last year against the dollar were RON (+8%), CNY (+7%), KRW (+6.5%), CZK (+6.5%), and TWD (+6%), while the worst were ARS (-29%), BRL (-22%), TRY (-19.5%), RUB (-17%), and PEN (-8.5%). That said, we believe global growth and liquidity conditions remain conducive for risk assets and EM. Our weak dollar call remains intact for Q1 but the rest of the year will hinge crucially on whether the incoming Biden administration can get the virus numbers under control whilst rolling out the vaccines more effectively. Stay tuned. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
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