Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep EM under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still unknown. Global growth was already at risk before the virus hit and now the outlook is even cloudier. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
Sweden is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Riksbank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Wednesday. Continue reading “Riksbank Preview”
Risk-off sentiment intensified last week. Near-term, we think EM is likely to remain under pressure until the full impact of the coronavirus is better known. On top of this, there is broad-based dollar strength. Besides the safe haven flows, the US outlook remains very strong. Taken in conjunction with the recent weak data out of Germany, France, and Japan, it’s clear that the US economy continues to outperform. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”
The US yield curve flirted with inversion again. The US economic outlook remains solid and so we believe Fed easing expectations are overdone and see US rates at the long end rising further. Annual benchmark revisions to the jobs data Friday will not derail ongoing strength in the US labor market, which ultimately supports our strong dollar call. Continue reading “Latest Thoughts on the US Outlook”
The Iowa caucus today marks the official start of the US primary season. There is no credible challenger to President Trump on the Republican side and so this piece will set out the likely political timeline ahead as Democrats choose their candidate. Continue reading “Democratic Primary Timeline”