Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Jobs Data

  • The debate over the cause of Ukrainian jet crash continues to rage on, but with few consequences for markets; we remain bullish as the dollar continues to edge higher
  • The US December jobs data is the highlight; Canada also reports December jobs data
  • Brazil December IPCA inflation is expected to rise to 4.24% y/y
  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed his Withdrawal Agreement bill through the final hurdle in the House of Commons yesterday
  • Japan reported weak November household spending; Australia reported firm November retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Remains Firm Ahead of US Jobs Data”

Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

  • Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction
  • The North American session is quiet in terms of US data
  • Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%
  • German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney
  • Israel is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%
  • China reported December CPI and PPI; Thailand announced new measures to lean against currency strength Continue reading “Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease”

Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict

In this piece we try to answer some of the lingering questions following the events in Iran and explore resulting opportunities. Continue reading “Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict”

Dollar Firm, Markets Fairly Calm After Iran Retaliates

  • Markets didn’t have to wait long for Iran to retaliate; the dollar continues to gain traction
  • The spike in oil prices should be on the Fed’s radar screen; WIRP suggests that a 25 bp rate cut is now fully priced in for 2020
  • ADP jobs, weekly mortgage applications and November consumer credit will be reported
  • German factory orders for November contracted sharply by -1.3% m/m (-6.5% y/y), far worse than expected; BOE Governor Carney made some dovish comments
  • Japan reported weaker than expected November cash earnings; AUD made a new low for this move overnight near .6850 but has since stabilized Continue reading “Dollar Firm, Markets Fairly Calm After Iran Retaliates”

Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Ease

  • Risk-off impulses have eased but the situation remains fragile
  • US and Canada data schedule is heavy today
  • Eurozone preliminary December inflation accelerated to 1.3% y/y, as expected; After eight months of deadlock in Spain, it looks as if Pedro Sanchez will be able to form a government
  • Markit reported weak final December Japan services and composite PMI readings; AUD continues to underperform
  • Onshore CNY has appreciated 0.4% to its strongest level against USD since August; Philippines December CPI came in much higher than expected Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Ease”

Dollar and Equities Soft as Markets Return to Risk-Off Territory

  • We are facing a classic risk off move from recent geopolitical events
  • Recent price action in the FX market has proven difficult to analyze
  • The US has a busy data week, capped off with December jobs data Friday
  • UK and eurozone reported strong final December services and composite PMIs
  • The Chinese government appointed a new head of the liaison office for Hong Kong Continue reading “Dollar and Equities Soft as Markets Return to Risk-Off Territory”

Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Holiday

  • The dollar continues to slide, but let’s keep things in perspective
  • During the North American session, there will only be minor US data reported
  • Likely candidates to replace outgoing Labour leader Corbyn suggest the party has learned nothing from the disastrous election
  • South Africa reported November money and private sector credit; Turkey reported November trade
  • Vice Premier Liu will travel to the US this Saturday to sign the Phase One trade deal; China reported official December PMIs
  • Singapore Prime Minister Lee said the economy managed to avoid recession in 2019 Continue reading “Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of Holiday”

Dollar Weakness Carries Over but Higher US Rates Lend Some Support

  • The foreign currencies were broadly firmer last week and that trend continues this week
  • Despite the holiday, the US has a fairly heavy data week that contains the first major snapshots of December
    Brazil reports November consolidated budget data
  • EU Trade Commissioner Hogan predicted that the UK is likely to abandon its opposition to a Brexit transition extension
  • Korea November IP contracted -0.3% y/y vs. -0.4% expected; Hong Kong reported better than expected November trade data Continue reading “Dollar Weakness Carries Over but Higher US Rates Lend Some Support”

Dollar Firm Ahead of the Holidays

  • The dollar continues to gain traction as the US economic outlook improves
  • Mexico October GDP proxy is expected to contract -0.60% y/y vs. +0.06% in September
  • Sterling remains under pressure; Japan reported November supermarket sales
  • Sri Lanka appointed a new central bank governor Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of the Holidays”