US Dollar Weighed Down by Dovish Fed Governors

Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of US Jobs Data

  • It took only two pieces of data this week to chop the legs off this dollar rally; the movement in US rates markets is noteworthy
  • US September jobs data today will be the data highlight
  • The reception to Johnson’s latest Brexit plan remains mixed
  • Japan officials are downplaying the impact of the consumption tax hike
  • Philippines September CPI rose 0.9% y/y; India cut rates 25 bp, as expected Continue reading “Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of US Jobs Data”

Dollar Steadies as Global Equity Markets Calm

  • Markets have gotten excessively pessimistic about the US economic outlook
  • In terms of Fed speakers, this is the busiest day of the week
  • US won a landmark WTO case against Europe, potentially igniting another front on the trade war
  • Eurozone and UK reported weak services and composite PMIs
  • There have been some tentative positive signals towards Johnson’s new Brexit plan
  • Turkey reported September CPI; Brazil pension reform bill has gotten watered down Continue reading “Dollar Steadies as Global Equity Markets Calm”

Dollar Shrugs Off Weak Data Again

  • The dollar has once again shrugged off weak US data
  • EM FX really didn’t take part in yesterday’s post-ISM moves and remains under pressure today
  • ADP reports private employment data for September; despite weakness in manufacturing, the overall US economy remains solid
  • Johnson will reportedly deliver a Brexit ultimatum to the EU today; Germany seems to be moving in the right direction in terms of fiscal stimulus
  • North Korea fired what appears to be a submarine-based ballistic missile; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5% Continue reading “Dollar Shrugs Off Weak Data Again”
Dollar and Equities End the Week on a Firm Note

Dollar Powers Ahead

  • The dollar continues to power ahead; US reports ISM PMI and auto sales
  • The WTO cut its outlook for global trade to the weakest in a decade
  • Eurozone reported final manufacturing PMIs and preliminary September CPI
  • UK PM Boris Johnson is set to reveal his new Brexit plan, which includes an alternative to the Irish backstop; UK reported manufacturing PMI
  • RBA cut rates 25 bp to 0.75%, as expected; Korea reported weak September CPI and trade data Continue reading “Dollar Powers Ahead”

Dollar Firm as Data-Filled Week Begins

  • More details have emerged on reports last week that the US may limit capital flows into China; to its credit, China has not reacted (so far)
  • Ahead of the US jobs report Friday, we will see several other important US data points
  • German state CPI readings suggest downside risks to national reading; UK reported final Q2 GDP and current account data
  • Japan reported mixed August retail sales and IP; Korea August IP contracted -2.9% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Data-Filled Week Begins”

Dollar Firm as US Economy Continues to Outperform

  • Political uncertainty is likely to persist in the US; the big unknown is whether this will impact the US economy
  • US core PCE reading will be of particular interest and is expected to rise 1.8% y/y; Quarles (voter) and Harker (non-voter) speak
  • Dovish BOE comments are weighing on sterling; France reported weak CPI and consumer spending data
  • Tokyo September CPI was lower than expected; FTSE Russell made some announcements regarding WGBI
  • Rate cuts in EM continue; Brazil reports August central government budget data Continue reading “Dollar Firm as US Economy Continues to Outperform”

Dollar Firm Despite Rising US Political Uncertainty

  • The dollar continues to benefit despite US political uncertainty
  • President Trump claimed to be getting “closer and closer” to a trade deal with China; we are very skeptical
  • There is a lot of US data to be reported and a heavy slate of Fed speakers today
  • ECB board member Lautenschlaeger has resigned; sterling continues to soften as Brexit optimism fades
  • Netanyahu has been tasked with forming the next Israeli government; Singapore August IP contracted -8.0% y/y; Philippines cut rates 25 bp to 4.0%, as expected Continue reading “Dollar Firm Despite Rising US Political Uncertainty”

Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Return

  • Markets have moved into risk-off mode from a confluence of events emanating from the US
  • Speaker of the House Pelosi formally launched a formal impeachment inquiry; DOJ inserted itself into Trump’s fight with New York state
  • Trump’s speech to the UN General Assembly yesterday was noteworthy for its belligerence
  • RBNZ and BOT kept rates steady, as expected; Czech is expected to follow suit Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Return”

Dollar Mixed as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

The ingredients are in place for continued dollar strength; CFNAI came in better than expected at 0.10 for August

UK Supreme Court ruled that Johnson’s suspension of Parliament was unlawful

IFO reported September business climate for Germany; Japan preliminary September PMI readings were reported

Hungary is expected to keep rates steady at 0.90%; Brazil COPOM minutes will be released; Mexico mid-September CPI is expected to rise 3.02% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Markets Await Fresh Drivers”