Dollar Firm Ahead of US Retail Sales and IP Data

  • The dollar rally continues; the US data highlight today will be January retail sales and IP
  • The Fed announced that it will cut back on its repo operations again starting today
  • Senate confirmation for Fed nominee Judy Shelton will be a close call
  • Banco de Mexico cut rates by 25 bp to 7.0% yesterday; Brazil central bank intervened in the FX markets
  • Sterling is holding up after yesterday’s gains following the cabinet reshuffle; Eurozone Q4 GDP grew 0.9% y/y
  • Japan’s parliament confirmed Seiji Adachi to replace outgoing BOJ board member Yutaka Harada Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of US Retail Sales and IP Data”

Dollar Takes a Breather as Risk Appetite Recovers

  • The dollar rally is taking a breather; Fed Chair Powell’s first day of testimony was a largely subdued affair
  • Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire Democratic primary with 26% of the vote
  • Eurozone industrial production fell sharply to -4.1% y/y; Riksbank kept rates steady at 0.0%, as expected
  • Geopolitical tensions in Syria are rising
  • New Zealand kept rates steady at 1.0%, as expected; India reports January CPI and December IP Continue reading “Dollar Takes a Breather as Risk Appetite Recovers”

Markets on Edge as New Week Begins

  • The coronavirus death toll is just over 900, exceeding the SARS epidemic; the dollar remains firm
  • President Trump will unveil his budget proposal for FY2021 beginning October 1 today
  • The faltering eurozone economy comes just as political uncertainty is picking up in Germany
  • Norway inflation spiked in January; Turkish local rates spiked after regulators cut the FX swap limits for local banks
  • Japan reported December current account data; China January CPI came in at 5.4% y/y in January, higher than expected Continue reading “Markets on Edge as New Week Begins”

Dollar Firm Ahead of US Jobs Report

  • The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise; the dollar continues to climb
  • The January jobs data is the highlight for the week; Canada also reports jobs data
  • The Fed submits its semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress today; Mexico and Brazil report January inflation data
  • The downdraft in eurozone industrial data continues; Russia cut rates 25 bp to 6.0% and signaled more easing ahead
  • RBA upbeat but Governor Lowe warns of “significant areas of uncertainty”
  • Japan reported weak December cash earnings and household spending; emerging Asia focuses on stimulus Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of US Jobs Report”

Dollar Firm as Markets Await Fresh Drivers

  • China cut tariffs on $75 bln of US imports by half, while the US said it could reciprocate in some way
  • The dollar continues to climb; during the North American session, only minor data will be reported; Brazil cut rates 25 bp
  • Germany reported very weak December factory orders; all is not well in the German state of Thuringia
  • Czech expected to keep rates steady; Philippines cut 25 bp; India remained on hold
  • Australia reported December trade and retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Markets Await Fresh Drivers”

Dollar Mixed as Risk Appetite Improves

  • Markets rallied in the early London session after headlines of a “significant breakthrough” for coronavirus vaccine
  • The dollar continues to climb; ADP reports its private sector jobs estimate; betting markets have responded to the partial results from the Iowa caucus
  • Brazil COPOM is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 4.25%; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • UK and eurozone reported strong final January PMI readings
  • Thailand unexpectedly cut rates by 25 bp to 1.00%; Monetary Authority of Singapore sent a dovish signal to the markets Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Risk Appetite Improves”

Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns

  • The dollar continues to climb; one of side-effects of the virus has been a swelling of the amount of negative yielding debt globally
  • The US primary season got off to a rocky start for the Democrats
  • During the North American session, December factory orders will be reported; the US economy remains strong
  • The UK reported January construction PMI
  • The RBA held rates at 0.75%, as expected; Korea January CPI came in hot at 1.5% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Some Risk Appetite Returns”

Dollar Rally Back on Track

  • Growth concerns continue to reverberate across global markets
  • The dollar rally back on track after a hiccup from the weaker than expected Chicago PMI
  • This is a big data week for the US; the US economy remains strong yet the US 3-month to 10-year curve remains inverted
  • Sterling is on the backfoot as PM Boris Johnson steps up his confrontational approach
  • Turkish CPI surprised on the upside at 12.15% y/y, putting the central bank in an even harder position
  • Chinese equity markets re-opened after the extended closure to the tune of a near 8% decline Continue reading “Dollar Rally Back on Track”