Dollar Mixed as Eventful Week Ends

  • The lack of follow-through for the dollar is disappointing but we’re sticking with our strong dollar call
  • The FOMC media embargo has ended; Canadian politics are heating up
  • PBOC lowered the 1-year loan prime rate 5 bp to 4.20%; Japan reported August CPI and BOJ tweaked its bond-buying
  • India announced corporate tax cuts; Taiwan reported weak August export orders; BRL has underperformed after COPOM cut rates 50 bp Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Eventful Week Ends”

Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

  • As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains
  • During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data
  • BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales
  • SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp
  • Brazil cut rates 50 bp to 5.5%; Indonesia cut rates 25 bp to 5.25%; Taiwan kept rates steady at 1.375%; SARB is expected to remain on hold Continue reading “Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday”
Dollar Mixed Ahead of FOMC Decision

Dollar Firm Ahead of FOMC Decision

  • The FOMC decision today is the highlight; we remain dollar bulls
  • Yesterday, the Fed addressed the funding squeeze and added liquidity to the system; it will do so again today
  • Oil markets remain volatile; UK reported August CPI; Japan reported August trade data
  • Israeli election is too close to call; South Africa reported August CPI and July retail sales; Brazil is expected to cut rates 50 bp to 5.5% Continue reading “Dollar Firm Ahead of FOMC Decision”

Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Build

  • The Saudi attacks continue to reverberate; oil prices have stabilized
  • The near-term dollar outlook depends on what the Fed says and does tomorrow; WIRP shows a 3% chance of no cut
  • US reports July IP; Trump said the US and Japan have reached an initial trade agreement
  • Brexit process remains in chaos; ZEW reported September sentiment for Germany and the eurozone
  • Riksbank and RBA released dovish minutes; Singapore reported August trade; Israel holds elections today Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Impulses Build”

Dollar Mixed, Oil Spikes as Markets Digest Saudi Attack

  • The weekend bombing of Saudi oil facilities continue to reverberate across global markets
  • The currencies of the oil producing nations are likely to outperform near-term
  • US rates continue to adjust ahead of the FOMC
  • UK Prime Minister Johnson is in Luxembourg today to meet with EC President Juncker
  • China reported weak August IP and retail sales Continue reading “Dollar Mixed, Oil Spikes as Markets Digest Saudi Attack”
Dollar Struggles; More Losses Likely Before Better Demand is Found

Dollar Soft as Risk Sentiment Stoked Ahead of US Retail Sales

Dollar Soft Ahead of ECB Decision

  • Risk sentiment was helped by a slight thaw in US-China trade tensions
  • The ECB decision is the main event today; the eurozone reported weak July IP
  • The US data highlight today is August CPI; higher US yields are helping the dollar
  • Oil prices remain heavy
  • Malaysia kept rates steady at 3.0%; Turkey is expected to cut rates 275 bp to 17.0%; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.5% Continue reading “Dollar Soft Ahead of ECB Decision”

Dollar Firm as US Yields Rise Ahead of PPI

  • The dollar continues to gain traction
  • The selloff in global bond markets continues; US reports August PPI
  • Press reports China will introduce measures to ease the negative impact of the trade war
  • China announced exemptions to tariffs for some US goods; China reported strong loan growth in August
  • Scottish appeals court ruled that Johnson’s suspension of Parliament was unlawful
  • Brazil July retail sales are expected to rise 2.2% y/y; Poland is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5% Continue reading “Dollar Firm as US Yields Rise Ahead of PPI”

Dollar Firms on Turnaround Tuesday

  • The dollar has gained some limited traction as the risk on euphoria is showing signs of letting up
  • China’s SAFE scrapped foreign investment limits in local stock and bond markets; China reported August CPI and PPI.
  • The UK bill forcing an extension to prevent a hard Brexit became law; UK reported firm July labor market data
  • The Scandies both reported lower than expected August CPI
  • South Africa July manufacturing production is expected to contract -1.5% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Firms on Turnaround Tuesday”