Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict

In this piece we try to answer some of the lingering questions following the events in Iran and explore resulting opportunities. Continue reading “Outcomes and Opportunities from the Iran Conflict”

Three UK Election Takeaways

There were at least three big consequences from the UK elections. (1) The Conservatives won a decisive majority and Brexit is happening by January 31, 2020. (2) Labour is likely to move to the centre after the resounding defeat and the poor showing from the Liberal Democrats. (3) The SNP will interpret their victory in Scotland as a mandated for a second referendum. Below we discuss each one. Continue reading “Three UK Election Takeaways”

Latin America Views Update

The news flow out of Latin America has been relentless since the middle of the year. Here we review some of the most recent developments concerning Chile, Brazil and Mexico, and how our trading views around them have evolved. Continue reading “Latin America Views Update”

South Africa’s Risk Events

There are two risk events for South Africa this week: S&P’s rating review Friday and Thursday’s central bank meeting, for which we have an out-of-consensus call for a cut. While none of these events represent major risks for asset prices, they will give us important incremental information about what is still to come. Continue reading “South Africa’s Risk Events”

Emerging Market Risk Map

With year-end upon us, we review some of the key risks to EM assets and how we think they progress from here. In short, the two most significant downside risks would be a decisive improvement in Elizabeth Warren’s polling figures and an upset in the US-China trade negotiations. Continue reading “Emerging Market Risk Map”

Mexico vs. Brazil Near-Term Outlook

Both Brazil and Mexico are in a good position to benefit from the current improvement in market sentiment. However, when comparing the factors driving the currencies of both countries, we think there are relatively more near-term positives for the Mexican peso than for the Brazilian real. Continue reading “Mexico vs. Brazil Near-Term Outlook”

A New Stage of the US-China Conflict

The US-China diplomatic relationship may be entering a new stage. The balance of power between the key players – Trump, China, the US Congress, and the Democrats – is changing and their roles are being reshuffled. This might be enough to break the endless cycle of agreements and re-escalations. In short, we think both Trump and Chinese officials have a greater incentive to reach a deal (or at least not to escalate) this time around. Continue reading “A New Stage of the US-China Conflict”