What Has Changed in EM

  • Press reports that suggest that the US may lift its tariffs on China
  • Turkish President Erdogan was granted emergency powers by parliament
  • South African Reserve Bank delivered a dovish hold
  • Violence has returned to Colombia Continue reading “What Has Changed in EM”

Dollar Mixed, Equities Higher on Trade Optimism

  • Risk on sentiment has returned due to press reports that suggest that the US may lift its tariffs on China
  • During the North American session, the US reports December IP and Canada reports December CPI
  • There has been no new Brexit news to speak of, and yet sterling is powering to two-month highs; UK reported weak December retail sales
  • Japan reported December national CPI
  • Colombia reports November retail sales and IP

Continue reading “Dollar Mixed, Equities Higher on Trade Optimism”

Dollar Still Firm After UK No Confidence Vote

  • As expected, UK Prime Minister May survived the no confidence vote yesterday 325-306
  • Press reports suggest that the EU will consider an extension of the Article 50 deadline well into H2
  • Federal prosecutors in Seattle will pursue a criminal case against China’s Huawei
  • The economic costs of the shutdown are mounting
  • During the North American session, the US reports January Philly Fed index and weekly jobless claims
  • Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 6.0%, as expected; SARB is widely expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%

Continue reading “Dollar Still Firm After UK No Confidence Vote”

South African Reserve Bank on Hold Ahead of Spring Elections

The South African Reserve Bank meets tomorrow and is widely expected to keep rates steady at 6.75%. The recent release of the ANC’s election manifesto suggests a modification of the central bank’s mandate, which we think would be a mistake. Longer-term, we see more downgrades and loss of investment grade from Moody’s.

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Dollar Still Firm, Markets Still Calm Ahead of UK No Confidence Vote

  • Markets are relatively calm after UK Parliament overwhelmingly rejected Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan by a vote of 432-202
  • Opposition Labour has called for a vote of no confidence in the government today
  • There are no signs of compromise from either side with regards to the US shutdown
  • December US retail sales and business inventories reports were due out but have now been postponed
  • The Fed will still release its Beige Book today
  • Central Bank of Turkey kept rates steady, as expected; South Africa reported November retail sales

Continue reading “Dollar Still Firm, Markets Still Calm Ahead of UK No Confidence Vote”

Bank Indonesia on Hold as Rupiah Solid Ahead of April Elections

Bank Indonesia meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 6.0%. If the rupiah remains relatively firm, then BI is likely to remain on hold for the time being. Elections in April are unlikely to have much impact as Jokowi is widely expected to win a second term.

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From the Securities Lending Trading Desk

In the Americas, SQM is expected to be a long term focus of demand as they are one of the top four companies controlling the roughly $3 billion global lithium market. In Asia, analysts predict that shares in the smartphone manufacturer, Xiaomi Corp, could fall further if the company loses market share to Huawei. In Europe, A mixed week for UK energy firm Ophir as it loses a key exploration license and then receives a takeover offer.

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Dollar Firm, Markets Calm Ahead of Brexit Vote

  • UK Parliament is scheduled to hold its Brexit vote today
  • Market moves during the initial post-vote period will be most difficult to gauge
  • US reports December PPI
  • Germany posted growth of 1.5% in 2018, the weakest in five years
  • Japan reported weak December machine tool orders
  • China reported December money and loan data; Israel reports December CPI

Continue reading “Dollar Firm, Markets Calm Ahead of Brexit Vote”