Norges Bank Preview

Norway is one of the few countries that have tightened monetary policy post-crisis. However, that tightening cycle appears to have ended and the Norges Bank is likely to keep rates steady when it meets this Thursday. Meanwhile, political uncertainty is increasing with the recent collapse of the government. Continue reading “Norges Bank Preview”

Dollar Mixed as Risk-Off Impulses Spread from Virus

  • Reports that Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread hurt risk appetite overnight
  • US President Trump and French president Macron agreed to take a step back from the digital tax dispute
  • The dollar is taking a breather today; after last week’s huge US data dump, releases this week are fairly light
  • The UK reported firm jobs data for November; BOJ kept policy steady, as expected
  •  Moody’s downgraded Hong Kong by a notch to Aa3 with stable outlook; data out of Asia suggest regional trade is starting to recover Continue reading “Dollar Mixed as Risk-Off Impulses Spread from Virus”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar continues to climb; after last week’s huge US data dump, releases this week are fairly light; the US economy is still doing well
  • BOC meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%
  • ECB meets Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady; UK reports jobs data Tuesday
  • Norges Bank meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.5%
  • BOJ meets Tuesday and is expected to keep policy steady; Australia reports December jobs data Thursday Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Market sentiment on EM remains positive after the Phase One trade deal was signed.  Data out of China is also supportive for EM.  Key forward-looking data this week are Taiwan export orders and Korea trade data for the first 20 days of January.  The global liquidity story also remains beneficial for risk, with the ECB, Norges Bank, BOC, and BOJ all set to maintain steady rates this week. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

Dollar Firm as Weak UK Data Weighs on Sterling

  • The dollar is edging higher to cap off a solid week overall
  • US December IP will be the highlight, but there will be a lot of other US data today as well
  • Ahead of the ECB meeting next Thursday, the account of the last one was released yesterday
  • Weak UK retail sales data have added fuel to speculation of BOE easing
  • Data out of China came in on the stronger side; Korea left rates unchanged at 1.25%, as expected Continue reading “Dollar Firm as Weak UK Data Weighs on Sterling”

Bank of Canada Preview

Bank of Canada meets next week. Data have been coming in soft, but it seems too soon to expect a rate cut. Markets are pricing in steady rates this year but may have to adjust expectations if the economy continues to weaken. Continue reading “Bank of Canada Preview”

Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data

  • There were no surprises in the US-China Phase One trade deal
  • The dollar is drifting lower ahead of the key retail sales data; there are other minor US data out today
  • Bank of England credit survey showed demand for loans fell in Q4
  • Turkey cut its one-week repo rate by 75 bps to 11.25%; South Africa is expected to keep rates steady at 6.5%
  • Japan reported November core machine orders and December PPI; China’s credit numbers for December showed no big change in lending Continue reading “Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data”

UK Economy Continues to Suffer

The next Bank of England meeting is January 30 and it will be Governor Carney’s last. He has made some very dovish comments recently, and other MPC members have followed suit. The economy is slowing significantly and so markets should be bracing for a potential cut then. Continue reading “UK Economy Continues to Suffer”