Dollar Bid as Budget Deal Averts Shutdown

  • The dollar remains bid
  • Congress and the White House have reportedly reached a budget deal
  • The euro remains heavy ahead of the ECB meeting Thursday; BOE’s Saunders said Brexit may prevent the bank from hiking rates
  • Japan reported weak June supermarket and department store sales overnight
  • RBNZ is refreshing its strategy for implementing unconventional monetary policy
  • Singapore June CPI rose 0.6% y/y; Hungary is expected to keep rates steady; Brazil mid-July IPCA inflation is expected at 3.32% y/y Continue reading “Dollar Bid as Budget Deal Averts Shutdown”

Dollar Gets Some Traction as New Week Begins

  • The dollar is getting some traction the new week begins
  • The most important US data release this week is the June Chicago Fed National Activity Index today
  • Press reports suggest China expects trade talks with the US to resume after “goodwill” moves over the weekend
  • EM trade data remain weak; protests in Hong Kong have turned more violent
  • Prime Minister Abe’s ruling coalition won weekend elections for the Upper House
  • UK government will hold a meeting of its emergency committee Continue reading “Dollar Gets Some Traction as New Week Begins”

Drivers for the Week Ahead

  • The dollar is coming off a volatile week
  • The most important US data release this week is the June Chicago Fed National Activity Index Monday
  • Preliminary July eurozone PMI readings will be reported Wednesday; ECB meets Thursday
  • Japan has a busy data week; Prime Minister Abe’s ruling coalition won weekend elections for the Upper House
  • In EM, the central banks of Hungary (Tuesday), Turkey, (Thursday), Russia, and Colombia (both Friday) meet Continue reading “Drivers for the Week Ahead”

EM Preview for the Week Ahead

EM central banks remain in easing mode, as the US-China trade war continues to have ripples across global markets. Reports suggest little progress has been seen, suggesting headwinds to global growth will continue through much of H2. We remain negative on EM, as the liquidity story (both domestic and global) is not enough to offset the uncertain global growth story. Continue reading “EM Preview for the Week Ahead”

What Has Changed in EM

  • Bank of Korea started the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 1.5%
  • Bank Indonesia started the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 5.75%
  • Fitch raised the outlook on Thailand’s BBB+ rating from stable to positive
  • South African Reserve Bank started the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 6.5%
  • Reports suggest Brazil President Bolsonaro is preparing new measures to boost the economy
  • Chile central bank delivered a dovish hold Continue reading “What Has Changed in EM”

Dollar Firms After NY Fed Clarifies Williams Comments

  • Comments from US officials have led to volatile markets this week
  • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that there is no change in dollar policy “as of now.”
  • Unexpectedly dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams were later “clarified” by the NY Fed
  • The Fed has painted itself into a corner, tilting dovish just as the US data is turning more positive
  • Japan reported June national CPI overnight; Fitch raised the outlook on Thailand’s BBB+ rating from stable to positive Continue reading “Dollar Firms After NY Fed Clarifies Williams Comments”

Dollar Under Pressure as Equity Slump Continues

  • Global equity markets continue their swoon from a growing confluence of factors
  • The dollar hasn’t benefitted today from the risk-off impulses
  • US reports Philly Fed survey, weekly claims, and leading index; UK reported June retail sales
  • Japan reported adjusted June trade deficit of -JPY14.4 bln; Australia reported June jobs data
  • Korea and Indonesia cut 25 bp; South Africa should follow suit but Chile likely to stand pat Continue reading “Dollar Under Pressure as Equity Slump Continues”

The Standout Asian Market for Securities Lending

As the second largest securities lending market in APAC, Hong Kong has been the success story in recent times and industry experts are seeing continued growth for clients there. Zubair Nizami, Head of Asian Securities Lending Trading at BBH recently discussed his market observations with Securities Lending Times.

Continue reading “The Standout Asian Market for Securities Lending”

Some Thoughts on the Looming US Debt Ceiling Issue

The White House and Congress are trying to reach a deal before the August recess, as recent studies suggest that the money will run out in early September. Using the 2011 debt ceiling fight as an example, equities may be vulnerable near-term, while the outlook for bonds and the dollar are not so clear-cut. Continue reading “Some Thoughts on the Looming US Debt Ceiling Issue”